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Making The Experts Look Bad

Today’s article in the Toronto Star gives me cause to examine more closely my contention that this Blue Jays team is not only capable of playing .500 baseball but will finish that way as well. The Vegas bookies have Jays at 68 wins and I haven’t found one major sportswriter who has the Jays winning more than 75 games. Most have the Jays a distant 5th in the AL East expecting Baltimore to have a surge as their young players mature.

In a
previous post, I examined where the wins would come from by assigning a number to the starters and the bullpen. Today, I look at my assessment of the season outcome from a different perspective, to look at the schedule and try to estimate the number of wins by month.

April – 24 games

Prediction – 13 – 11

Top Teams - 13 games against White Sox, Angels, Rays, Red Sox – Jays will be 6-7. With the hot start, they will win 7 of 11 from the remaining games.

May – 29 games

Prediction – 16 - 13

Top Teams – 10 games against White Sox, Angels, Red Sox – Jays will be 4-6. The remainder of the schedule is an opportunity to put some wins away for posterity.


June – 26 games

Prediction – 12 - 14

Top Teams – 14 games against, Yankees, Rays, Phillies, Cardinals – Jays will be 5-9. The remainder of the schedule should provide more wins than losses.

July – 25 games

Prediction – 13 - 12

Top Teams – 9 games against Yankees, Twins, Red Sox – Jays will be 3-6. The remainder of the schedule this month is against the leagues weaker teams and should provide opportunities to pick up ground.

August – 28 games

Prediction – 12 - 16

Top Teams – 20 games against the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Angels. By far the toughest month and an opportunity to show if they can stay with the big boys. It will also be a test for the young pitching staff. How will they be handling the “dog days.” Will they be drained by late summer or will they have matured and become confident and mentally tough. – Jays will be 7-13. Jays need to beat the weaker teams this month in order to maintain a shot at .500

September /October – 30 games

Prediction – 15 - 15

Top Teams – 17 games against Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Rays – Jays will be 7-10. Remainder of the schedule is against teams in the middle of the pack. Another tough month, but I expect a strong finish by the Jays acting the role of spoiler, with guys trying to make a case for 2011, and some of the young players making an impact due to expanded rosters.

Each year provides some surprises against specific teams but one thing is for sure, the 3 best teams in baseball are in this division and the Jays will have to make hay against the rest of the league in order to have a chance to reach this goal.

Final Prediction – 81-81 – 4th place in AL East

William Bruyea

2 comments:

  1. I suppose as a Tor. fan .500% could be considered a decent year. Build on Blue Jays. I cant stand watching them chug along anymore and as an ex-Expo fan I have moved on to a Jay equivalent... The CUBS!!

    Rob in Ottawa

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  2. Rob,

    Thanks for the comment. I admit it's been painful watching as an arrogant JP Riccardi ignore the basic principles all GM's use to build a successful team and farm system. Anthopolous has done a masterful and may I say speedy job at reversing the process. All good teams take time to build but usually start with a core of youngsters who have a surprise year. I believe this is that surprise year for the Jays so there is much to be excited about. The farm is full of pitching. Now we just need to add some bats to the mix. BTW....the Cubbies are smoking dope if they think they can make the playoffs with THAT bullpen. Time to trade for one of Jays experienced relievers. Which one do you like? What prospects would they consider trading?

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