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April Was Encouraging

Prediction Review

In a season opening post, I broke down my expectation for the Jays season on a month by month basis. It's now time now to review the Jays performance compared to mine for the month.

My prediction for April had the jays winning 13 of 24 games. The jays were just 2 Jason Frasor blown saves away from exceeding their record but finished at 12 and 12. This in spite of a team with several regulars hitting below .200 and stalwarts Fraser and Downs struggling to open the season.

The starting rotation opened the season with one of my favor of relievers Brian Tallet a designated starter, but ended with him on the DL and a real starter Brett Cecil and his place. In spite of some inconsistencies from Morrow and Tallet, the starters finished as follows:

Romero – 2-1, Marcum 0-1, Eveland 2-0, Morrow 2-2, Tallet 1-1, Cecil 1-1 for an overall record of 8-6. Casey Janssen was the beneficiary of some solid offense which resulted in 3 victories, otherwise the bullpen was mediocre except for Kevin Gregg who had 6 saves and was nearly perfect. While Romero and Marcum will have to go some to hit the 30 wins I predicted for them, they are pitching well enough to meet those targets given some run support, particularly Marcum who has 6 quality starts in a row to start the season without a victory. Morrow however, looks like he is very capable of 15 wins based on his last 2 starts. With Eveland a pleasant surprise by moving Tallet to the pen where he belongs when he returns from the DL, we improve both our rotation and our pen in support of the starters.

May Prediction – 29 games

Original Prediction – 16 - 13

Original Analysis

Top Teams – 10 games against White Sox, Angels, Red Sox – Jays will be 4-6. The remainder of the schedule is an opportunity to put some wins away for posterity.

Update: The top teams mentioned above are all struggling to start the season and other than the Twins and Rays, the Jays don’t have any of the league leading teams on the schedule. I like their chances of exceeding .500 this month.

William Bruyea

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